BBC Sounds the Fire Alarm In Yosemite…..In 2050

yosemite1Doing an impression of Paul Revere the British Broadcasting Corporation is warning us that fire is coming. Specifically the BBC says Yosemite National Park will burn and we can expect a 20% increase in fire activity in Yosemite by 2050.

Citing data authored in part by Dr. James Lutz of the University of Washington and published in the International Journal of Wildland Fire, fires will be more frequent and will burn more intensely. The fires will burn not necessarily from hotter atmospheric temperatures but an increase in lightning strikes due to less carbon dioxide in the atmosphere caused by global warming.

My head is spinning.

Dr Lutz is working from data off climate models that come from other scientists so his interpretations are based on a whole lot of guessing. His theory of less snowfall, more fires actually come from historical data that suggests fires burn more intensely in Yosemite when there is less snowfall.

Who knew?

TreeHugger.com picked up the BBC article that is sure to get their base a bit worried.

So based on a study of the relationship of snowfall, lightning and fire in Yosemite between 1984 and 2000 scientists have concluded fire in the future will mimic the past.

Global warming, or climate changes induced by industrialized man may………may increase the probability of  less snowfall, more lightning and more intense fire in Yosemite.

I need to get a hold of some of that easy grant money.

The single benefit I see from this is our government feeds off this stuff. There is no question this study is making its way through the halls of the Interior Department and Forest Service offices as we speak. If it gets more money for fire suppression and prevention I see no harm in stoking the fears of the clueless or gullible.

2 Comments

  • Mike says:

    Hi Kate, thanks for the comment. Where I was a small figure in the corner of the Internet I now occupy an even smaller corner in the basement.
    We need some fires to blog or I will surely fall of the cliff completely.
    WordPress seems to be a magnet for spammers. I fend off a few every day.

  • bigsurkate says:

    Oh, horse pucky. Weather predictions are rarely accurate even a week out, but 40 years?

    Did you change the lay-out again, Mikie? I like it. So professional, not that it wasn’t before!

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Mike Morales

Retired Cal Fire/CDF Fire Captain

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